Posted: 1:00 p.m. Sunday, Dec. 22, 2013
By Matthew Fairburn
It would take a surprising turnaround for Houston to play themselves out of the top pick in the draft. Nevertheless, there's still a chance the Rams, via the 2012 trade with Washington, could end up with the first overall selection.
St. Louis has Washington's pick by way of the RGIII trade in 2012. The Rams could still wind up with the top pick if Houston somehow manages to win one of its last two games. If the Texans and Redskins wind up with the same record at season's end, Washington would win out for the top pick based on strength of schedule, which would belong to the Rams.
The rest of the order is subject to plenty of change in the final two weeks of the season. Six different teams have four wins, which means the entire top 10 of the order will look a lot different at the end of the season based on who wins in the next few weeks.
Week 16 doesn't feature too many games between teams jockeying for position at the top of the draft order. The Falcons play on the road against the 49ers, the Vikings play on the road against the Bengals and the Raiders play on the road against the Chargers. It would take an upset for any of those teams to slide down the order.
The two teams with the best chance of winning and moving down the draft order in Week 16 might be the Browns, who play the Jets, and the Jaguars, who play against the Titans.
The tiebreaking process for determining final draft order starts with strength of schedule, teams with the easier schedule get the higher pick if the records are the same. From there, the league uses division and conference record tiebreakers, and if that's even, it comes down to a coin flip.
Here's the full order heading into Sunday.
1. Houston Texans - 2-12 (.554)
2. St. Louis Rams (via Washington Redskins) - 3-11 (.514)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - 4-10 (.496)
4. Oakland Raiders - 4-10 (.504)
5. Cleveland Browns - 4-10 (.527)
6. Atlanta Falcons - 4-10 (.558)
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 4-10 (.576)
8. Minnesota Vikings - 4-9-1 (.527)
9. Tennessee Titans - 5-9 (.500)
10. Buffalo Bills - 5-9 (.528)
11. New York Giants - 5-9 (.534)
12. Pittsburgh Steelers - 6-8 (.482)
13. New York Jets - 6-8 (.486)
14. St. Louis Rams - 6-8 (.558)
15. Detroit Lions - 7-7 (.468)
16. Dallas Cowboys 7-7 (.486)
17. San Diego Chargers - 7-7 (.500)
18. Green Bay Packers - 7-6-1 (.464)
19. Miami Dolphins - 8-6 (.504)
20. Arizona Cardinals - 9-5 (.531)
Teams 21-32 are currently in the playoff picture. Elimination determines the order of playoff teams, so this list is based on records.
21. Philadelphia Eagles - 8-6 (.464)
22. Chicago Bears - 8-6 (.472)
23. Baltimore Ravens - 8-6 (.482)
24. Cincinnati Bengals - 9-5 (.486)
25. Indianapolis Colts** - 9-5 (.487)
26. New England Patriots - 10-4 (.473)
27. Carolina Panthers - 10-4 (.500)
28. San Francisco 49ers - 10-4 (.504)
29. New Orleans Saints - 10-4 (.522)
30. Kansas City Chiefs - 11-3 (.429)
31. Denver Broncos - 11-3 (.469)
32. Seattle Seahawks 12-2 (.482)
(**Indianapolis' pick belongs to Cleveland.)